Last year we entered the Mets' regular season with the utmost confidence. The orange and blue had exceeded our preseason expectations in 2006, winning the National League East and the Division Series.
Then the Mets got off to a decent start the first half of last season, and although they never had a real dominant stretch, we knew they'd turn it on in the postseason.
Then they just flat out collapsed. No words can really explain what happened in 2007, but many have been wasted trying.
So now, thanks largely to the addition of Johan Santana, we enter a new season with a bit of confidence again. But we won't get too crazy this year.
Instead we'll watch all 162 games with caution. You just never know what may be waiting around the corner.
You have to like the Mets chances of winning the division, though. Sure, the Phillies are owed the respect of a defending champion, but they didn't do much to help themselves this offseason.
The Braves are also a contender in 2008, but we're not sold on their bullpen and their outfield production is somewhat limited (although they're not much worse off than an Alouless Mets).
The Nationals and Marlins are simply a non-factor, although Lastings Milledge is likely to turn into Pat Burrell against the Mets this year.
So you have to again like the Mets' chances of reaching the playoffs. And there is really no one team in the National League that makes you say 'uh-oh.' The Rockies and Diamondbcaks are certainly World Series contenders, but they play in a division where the Dodgers and Padres will also have something to say. It's going to be a long, draining regular season for two teams that now truly have something to prove.
For this preview we thought rather than spend our time breaking the Mets down position by position against the other teams, we thought it more important to compare the Mets to their 2007 selves.
Sure, not many positions have changed hands, but the expectations of the players manning those positions has. And how those players live up to expectation will be the most important theme of the final season at Shea Stadium:
Catcher
2007 — Paul LoDuca
2008— Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro
This is so very clearly the biggest downgrade in 2008. Last year you felt good entering the season with LoDuca as your backstop. He was coming off a season in which he hit .318. He was a fiery guy on an otherwise laid back team. And he certainly inspired attractive 19-year-old girls to come out to Shea.
We will miss all of that this year.
Sure, LoDuca didn't have quite the same season last campaign, but he still drove in more runs than the year before, despite playing in five less games and attracting more controversy than Michael Jackson on a balcony.
Schneider will not produce offensively. He has never hit above .268 during a season in which he had at least 300 at bats and, not being a strong hitter, he makes the bottom of the lineup too lefthanded. Does his defensive presence really make up for these facts?
We love Castro, but we're not sure he can give the Mets the sort of regular production they need. He will need to stay healthy and get at least 250 at bats, a number he's never reached in nine big league seasons.
The Verdict: The 2007 Mets and Paul LoDuca certainly had the edge behind the dish.
First Base
2007—Carlos Delgado
2008— Carlos Delgado
This is the trickiest one. Obviously, a lot of people think Delgado is done. "He's too old," they say.
But we actually like 2008 Delgado more than 2007 Delgado. Here's why: We know now he's probably not gonna do what he did in 2006 ever again.
The expectations are much lower. For example, last week on the WFAN midday show they were saying how they'd sign up for 25 and 80 out of Delgado this year, after last year's debacle. Well, guess what? Twenty-five and 80 is pretty much what you got from him last year. In fact, he even drove in 89 runs. That's not too bad.
The way people talk about Delgado now, you'd think he had 17 home runs and drove in 65 in 2007.
If he can just come through a little more in the clutch and add 15 points to his average, Delgado will silence his critics this year. Wouldn't you be happy with .275, 25 home runs, 90 RBIs out of the 5 or 6 spot?
The Verdict: We think 2008 Delgado will surprise.
Second Base
2007—Jose Valentin/Luis Castillo
2008—Luis Castillo
Call us crazy but we liked what Jose Valentin did for this ball club. It was a short run, but he was the perfect guy to lengthen the Mets lineup.
Castillo obviously provides something different. He's a two-hitter and a defensive presence. And he's good at that. But when you look at the bottom of this year's Mets' lineup, you wish you had someone like Valentin to fill it out.
Also, Castillo's ability to bunt and slap is lost a little in this lineup. Reyes is always going to be looking to steal first and foremost. And once he's in scoring position, a ground ball isn't going to do much good unless there are no outs.
Example: Reyes singles and steals second with one out, Castillo's ground ball out only gets Reyes to third and now we still need Wright to get a base hit with two outs. Because Reyes is always in instant scoring position the Mets could use more of a run producer in the No. 2 spot. Think an early Edgardo Alfonzo. That kind of player, however, is not on this Mets team. Certainly not without shortenin the lineup even more.
The Verdict: We think Valentin did more for the Mets lineup than Castillo does. However, Castillo is still a better player.
Third Base
2007—David Wright
2008—David Wright
The Verdict: It doesn't matter. Either way you have yourself a stellar young hitter who's going to give you somewhere in the ballpark of .300/30/100 and 30 steals. Well on his way to being the finest player in Mets history.
Shortstop
2007—Jose Reyes
2008—Jose Reyes
Heading into last season, all we heard is how Jose Reyes had added a little power to his game. "He looks so much stronger," everyone wrote.
It was the worst thing that could have happened. Reyes became a modern day Lenny Dykstra, swinging for the fences instead of setting the table. How many times during that September swoon did he fly out?
Well it seems this year he's cut down on his uppercut and that should be better for the team.
We'll get very nervous if Reyes has a slow April, and we'll be absolutely petrified if it carries into May.
But we think Reyes has his priorities in order and 2008 will be another great year for him.
The Verdict: We like the Reyes who we think will hit the ball more on the line in 2008 better than the Jose "Canseco" Reyes of 2007.
Left Field
2007—Moises Alou
2008—Moises Alou
At least last year, Alou waited a month to have injuries. When he's in the lineup, he's a beast. Key words: When he's in the lineup.
We just hope he's healthy in October and the Mets are still playing.
The Verdict: How can you pick a guy on the DL. We'll take the 2007 Alou, who skinned the ball every time he made contact.
Center Field
2007—Carlos Beltran
2008—Carlos Beltran
The Verdict: Either way Beltran's driving in 110 runs without getting more than three or four really clutch hits all year. He makes everything look effortless, and that's not always a good thing.
Right Field
2007—Shawn Green
2008—Ryan Church
OK, so Shawn Green's terrible right. But at least last year you had Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez waiting in the wings. Now there's really no backup plan. That's scary. However, we do believe Church is a better player than Green at this juncture.
If we can land Xavier Nady or Marcus Thames in a deal, we'll feel better about the right field situation. Until then, we liked last year's mix and match better than banking entirely on Ryan Church, another of the guys making this Mets lineup way too left-handed.
The Verdict: Church is better, but the depth of 2007 was much more comforting.
Starting Pitching
2007—Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey (with Pedro lurking)
2008—Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey (with Hernandez lurking)
The most obvious difference is the front end of the rotation, and its a huge difference. Santana and Pedro (pictured above) are head and shoulders above their 2007 counterparts.
But the other reason the 2008 rotation trumps the 2007 version is the improvement Maine and Perez showed last year. The Mets have four guys who can and should each win 15 games. How many other teams in baseball can say that? Realistically, only about three or four.
The Verdict: This is the best Mets rotation since the late 1980s.
Relief Pitching
2007—Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Guillermo Mota, Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoeneweis, Joe Smith and Jorge Sosa
2008—Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Matt Wise, Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoeneweis, Joe Smith and Jorge Sosa (Duaner Sanchez will also factor in, provided he stays away from cabs all season).
Listen, Wise is better than a steroid-free Mota. That's the key. If Sanchez gives you somthing, you get an improved effort from Schoeneweis and Wagner doesn't implode, the 2008 Mets bullpen better.
That's not saying too much, though. The bullpen was horrid last year. It was the single biggest downfall of the team.
The Verdict: We're not sure the Mets were aggressive enough in improving the bullpen, but we do believe they're better.
Bench
2007—Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, Ramon Castro, Ruben Gotay, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Jeff Conine
2008—Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, Ramon Castro and Brady Clark
We already miss Gotay, and Milledge and Gomez could have helped this bench. But we do believe Chavez, Anderson, Easley and Castro are great backups, really as good at what they do as anyone. The key for this year's bench is establishing who will be the right-handed power guy. He's not here yet, but we're sure that once he gets here, the Mets will have the one of, if not, the best benches in the National League.
